Bankroll Management
The best handicapper in the world goes broke without it. How much you bet matters more than what you bet on: here is how to size every play so the swings cannot bury you.
Variance Is Brutal: Plan For It
Even a winning bettor hits losing streaks of 6, 8, 10 bets in a row. Bankroll management keeps a normal cold spell from becoming a wipeout. Bet 10% a play and a 7-bet skid guts you; bet 1 to 2% and you barely feel it.
The Unit System
A unit is a fixed slice of your bankroll, usually 1 to 2%, and you measure every bet in units instead of dollars. It strips emotion out of sizing and keeps your results comparable over time.
Unit Calculator
Your unit and the 1u to 3u ladder from a bankroll and a percent.
Why units, not dollars?
"2 units on the favorite" means the same thing on a $500 roll or a $50,000 one: the discipline travels with you.
When sizing is a fixed percentage you cannot make the panicked 10-unit revenge bet. The system holds the line so you do not rely on willpower at the worst moment.
Rule of thumb: 1u standard, cap your biggest play at 3u, and let confidence decide where in that range you land.
The Kelly Criterion
Flat units are great. Kelly goes one step further: it sizes each bet to the edge you have on it, the fraction that maximizes long-term growth. The formula is f = (bp - q) / b: your edge divided by the odds.
Kelly Calculator
What fraction of the roll an edge is worth, full to quarter Kelly.
Kelly only bets when your win estimate beats the break-even price. No edge, no bet: the formula returns zero.
Full Kelly is optimal only if your probabilities are perfect, and they never are. Half or quarter Kelly keeps most of the growth with far less swing.
Overestimate your edge and Kelly tells you to overbet. Be honest, or conservative, with that number.
Four Rules That Keep You Solvent
Your bankroll is money set aside for betting, never rent or bills. Walling it off keeps every decision clear-headed.
Bet in units, not gut feelings. A consistent 1 to 2% per play means no single loss can blow up your roll.
Down on the day? Stick to your unit. The double-it-back bet is how good bankrolls die.
A unit is a percentage, not a fixed dollar. Recalculate it so sizing scales up with wins and down through downswings.
Sizing is solved. Now find the edges.
Bankroll management keeps you in the game, but you still need +EV plays to win.
For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.