Conviction Plays
The data behind the card. We rank every play by conviction, then bet the top of the board. Here's the verified 2019–2025 record for each product — bet straight, as a small parlay, as a round-robin, and (honestly) as a longshot. The weekly legs post inside the member card.
The core edge — conviction plays, bet straight
Our durable edge is the highest-conviction plays themselves. Bet straight (1u each), the top CFB conviction tier is the steadiest, most reliable money — best risk-adjusted return, profitable in 6 of the last 7 seasons.
Lifetime 2019–2025, price-aware (−110 default). Sharpe = mean-season ROI ÷ season-to-season swing; higher = steadier. Recommended stake ≈ 1–2% of bankroll per play.
The CFB conviction parlay (2–3 legs)
Parlaying the top conviction CFB plays — the only multi-leg size that holds up. The 3-leg is the lead product: it stayed positive out-of-sample (its forward record beats the in-sample number), not just on paper.
Lifetime ROI on the realized record. Small samples (lumpy season to season) — a real edge, not a guaranteed return. Push legs drop. Bet NFL straight — NFL parlays are −EV at every size.
Round-robin (the action tier)
Spread the top-4 conviction plays across every 2- or 3-leg combo for broader coverage and a smoother hit cadence. Higher-variance leverage on the same edge — fun, with real upside.
Per-ticket ROI, 1u per combo. ROI assumes −110; it softens under real juice (most legs are unpriced). Smoother than a single parlay, rougher than betting the legs straight.
Mega parlay — lottery ticket (entertainment, −EV)
A 6-leg longshot is not a +EV play — it cashes rarely and is expected to lose long-run. Bet small, for fun, never as a bankroll strategy.
Get these plays every week
The conviction legs, the 3-leg parlay, and the round-robin card post here each week for members. Unit sizing comes with A.I. Pro.
See membership plansBacktested on realized placed plays (2019–2025), price-aware, never the corrupt stored P/L. For informational and entertainment purposes only.