Conviction Plays

The data behind the card. We rank every play by conviction, then bet the top of the board. Here's the verified 2019–2025 record for each product - bet straight, as a small parlay, as a round-robin, and (honestly) as a longshot. The weekly legs post inside the member card.

The core edge - conviction plays, bet straight

Our durable edge is the highest-conviction plays themselves. Bet straight (1u each), the top CFB conviction tier is the steadiest, most reliable money - best risk-adjusted return, profitable in 6 of the last 7 seasons.

Top-2 legs · straight

+4.8%

54.9% win · Sharpe 0.16

3/8 winning seasons · worst -33.9%

Top-3 legs · straight

+8.5%

56.9% win · Sharpe 0.57

5/8 winning seasons · worst -11.9%

Top-4 legs · straightbest risk-adj

+9.9%

57.6% win · Sharpe 0.36

6/8 winning seasons · worst -27.8%

Lifetime 2019–2025, price-aware (−110 default). Sharpe = mean-season ROI ÷ season-to-season swing; higher = steadier. Recommended stake ≈ 1–2% of bankroll per play.

The CFB conviction parlay (2–3 legs)

Parlaying the top conviction CFB plays - the only multi-leg size that holds up. The 3-leg is the lead product: it stayed positive out-of-sample (its forward record beats the in-sample number), not just on paper.

CFB 3-leg parlaylead product

+35.8%

20.2% hit · 21/104 cashed

CFB 2-leg parlay

+17.2%

33.7% hit · 35/104 cashed

Lifetime ROI on the realized record. Small samples (lumpy season to season) - a real edge, not a guaranteed return. Push legs drop. Bet NFL straight - NFL parlays are −EV at every size.

Round-robin (the action tier)

Spread the top-4 conviction plays across every 2- or 3-leg combo for broader coverage and a smoother hit cadence. Higher-variance leverage on the same edge - fun, with real upside.

Top-4 · 2-leg round-robin

+18.8%

33.2% per ticket · 195/588

Top-4 · 3-leg round-robin

+27.2%

18.6% per ticket · 73/392

Top-5 · 3-leg round-robin

+22.3%

18.0% per ticket · 175/970

Per-ticket ROI, 1u per combo. ROI assumes −110; it softens under real juice (most legs are unpriced). Smoother than a single parlay, rougher than betting the legs straight.

Mega parlay - lottery ticket (entertainment, −EV)

A 6-leg longshot is not a +EV play - it cashes rarely and is expected to lose long-run. Bet small, for fun, never as a bankroll strategy.

CFB 6-leglottery

cashes ~1 in 31 weeks

≈ 0.38/yr · winners pay a median 92× (up to 643×)

5 of 7 seasons cashed zero · 2025: 0 cashes

NFL 6-leglottery

cashes ~1 in 28 weeks

≈ 0.57/yr · winners pay a median 48× (up to 92×)

4 of 7 seasons cashed zero · 2025: 0 cashes

Get these plays every week

The conviction legs, the 3-leg parlay, and the round-robin card post here each week for members. Unit sizing comes with A.I. Pro.

See membership plans

Backtested on realized placed plays (2019–2025), price-aware, never the corrupt stored P/L. For informational and entertainment purposes only.