The data behind the card

Conviction Plays (backtested)

We rank every play by conviction, then bet the top of the board. Every figure below is a backtest built from our official straight plays since 2019: the top conviction legs bet straight, as a small parlay, as a round robin and, honestly, as a longshot. The parlays and round robins were never placed. The weekly legs post inside the member card.

This is not the official record. The official record is every play on our card, bet straight and graded flat: see the Track Record. Prices here are the recorded price, or -110 where none was recorded.

The core edge: conviction plays, bet straight

backtested

+9.4% ROITop-4 CFB legs, 1u each · 57.3% win · 6 of 8 seasons up · at the recorded priceROI by pool

The CFB conviction parlay, 2 to 3 legs

backtested

+27.3% ROI3-leg · 18.9% hit · 21 of 111 cashed · 2-leg +16.4% ROIROI by size

Round robin, the action tier

backtested

+23.5% ROIat -110 where unpricedTop-4 · 3-leg, 18.1% per ticket · Top-4 · 2-leg +17.2% ROIEvery combo

Mega parlay, a lottery ticket

backtested

1 in 33 weeksEntertainment, negative EV · 6 legs · median 92x, up to 643x · 5 seasons cashed zero · latest season: 0 cashesNot a bankroll strategy: it cashes rarely and loses long-run.Both sports

The LFG Parlay Card record, kept separately

When we post a parlay card, it gets its own record at the real odds of every leg, from the first ticket. It is never added to the official flat record, and none of the backtest above is in it.

Not started: no card posted yet

Get these plays every week

The top conviction legs post inside the member card before kickoff, with every line, price and unit.

See the plans

Backtested: combinations of our official straight plays since 2019, graded on their real results, each leg at its recorded price, -110 where none was recorded. These combinations were never placed and are not part of the official record. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For informational and entertainment purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.